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Ran Zhidong: April 15 stock market closing interpretation, from the fundamentals to change thinking!

2023-02-28 04:24:19

Instead, the surge in short-term paper financing could become a source of liquidity for near-term speculation.

Look on the surface of the market after the fall, began to shock finishing trend, there will be no risk, patience to hold waiting for the outbreak.


Epic monetary and credit growth shows determination to revive the economy.

At present, China's determination to revive its economy has leapt on paper.Instead, the surge in short-term note financing could be a source of liquidity for recent market speculation.While the PBOC may have to rebalance the monetary growth of March at a later stage, the determination shown in these monetary statistics also confirms the importance of stabilizing the economy.It's hard to imagine anyone willing to nip a newly recovered economy in the bud.Sooner or later, the massive supply of liquidity will translate into a further improvement in fundamentals.

Second, the market remains skeptical of the recovery, indicating that the market still has highs ahead.

There are deep-seated doubts about the current recovery. The coming improvement in fundamentals will dispel these doubts and turn bears into bulls. With the epic monetary data, markets will start looking for, and should soon find, hard evidence of a cyclical recovery. This is because improvements in fundamentals tend to follow strong liquidity growth and will create a virtuous feedback loop between market prices and fundamentals. As a result, the market's general caution suggests further gains ahead. We re-emphasize that the long-term upward trend outweighs the short-term volatility at this time.

Third, the US dollar is no longer strong, which is beneficial to emerging markets and A-shares.

On a trade-weighted basis, the dollar is now trading at an all-time high -- last seen after Donald Trump's election victory in December 2016. The pause in the Fed's rate rise and China's pro-monetary easing-led cyclical recovery are likely to dampen the dollar's strength. The strength of the dollar generally reflects falling dollar liquidity. This scenario is bad for both emerging markets and A-shares-as in 2018. Now, the opposite must be true.

A bull market usually has three phases:

Phase One: repair. Valuation repair, technical repair, confidence repair, the liberation of a number of hold-ups and sell-downs, but also a number of demon stocks. And opinions on whether the market is a bull market or a rebound are controversial.

Stage Two: Bloom. Overall active and rising, this phase of the increase is greater, rising healthy, easy to make money, OTC funds keep coming into the market, Big Rush.

Stage 3: Bubbles. The market is crazy, the whole people speculate on stocks, celebrities open accounts and high-profile marriages to financial talents continue to appear on the hot search.But at the same time, the market has diverged, with some stocks constantly reaching new highs and others having difficulty making money.


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